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Tag: Real Estate Market

  • Millions of Homes Sit Empty — So Why Is Housing Still Scarce?

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    The “15.6 Million Vacant Homes” Number Everyone Gets Wrong

    You’ve probably seen the claim: millions of homes sit empty across the country, so why is housing still so hard to find? The Census Bureau’s latest report puts a real number on it — 15.6 million vacant housing units nationally in the second quarter of 2026. But the number that gets repeated almost never comes with the context that makes it meaningful.

    Of those 15.6 million vacant units, only about 1 million were classified as vacant and for sale only. The rest were doing something else entirely: 3.7 million were available for rent, 1 million had already been sold or rented and were simply waiting for the new owner or tenant to move in, 3.4 million were seasonal or vacation properties, and 6.5 million — the largest single category — were being held off the market altogether.

    “Vacant” measures whether someone was living there, not whether it’s for sale.

    The Census Bureau’s survey counts a unit as vacant if no one was occupying it at the time of the interview, unless the usual residents were just temporarily away. That definition sweeps in a lot of housing that was never going to hit the market: a home mid-renovation, a property tied up in an estate, a vacation condo used three weeks a year, a rental sitting empty between tenants, a house an owner simply isn’t ready to sell.

    A physically existing home isn’t automatically an economically available one. It needs a willing seller, a workable price, clear title, a location with demand, and often financing or insurance that a lender or buyer can actually obtain. When those pieces aren’t in place, a vacant property stays vacant — sometimes for years — without ever functioning as usable supply.

    The national rates back this up. The homeowner vacancy rate — the share of owner-occupied-type housing that’s vacant and for sale — was just 1.2% in Q2 2026, statistically unchanged from a year earlier. Rental vacancy sat at 7.3%, also roughly flat year over year. Neither number shows a sudden flood of unclaimed housing hitting the market.

    Why this matters beyond the statistics debate

    For anyone who owns property or is thinking about buying investment real estate, the lesson isn’t really about national numbers at all — it’s about knowing which category a specific property or market actually falls into. A high local vacancy count could mean a wave of new apartment supply, a rise in seasonal or investor-owned homes, or genuine distress like population loss or deferred maintenance. Those are very different situations that call for very different strategies.

    That’s the kind of read a national headline can’t give you, but a local property manager can. At Smart One Property Management, we track what’s actually happening with inventory, rentals, and vacancy trends in Long Beach and Orange County — not just what a national press release says — so owners and investors can make decisions based on their market, not a talking point.

    Curious what local vacancy and rental trends mean for your property? Reach out to Smart One Property Management.

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Residential Vacancies and Homeownership, Second Quarter 2026, released July 28, 2026.

  • That 19% Housing-Starts Jump Isn’t What It Looks Like

    The latest construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and HUD showed housing starts up 19% in June — a number that sounds like a construction boom. It isn’t quite that simple, and the details matter more to property owners and investors than the headline does.

    The increase was concentrated, not broad-based. Single-family starts actually dipped slightly in June, coming in essentially flat. Nearly all of the jump came from multifamily construction — apartment buildings, which count differently in the data. A single 250-unit building registers as 250 “starts” the moment ground breaks, the same as 250 separate single-family homes taking months to build. Both add supply, but they don’t compete for the same buyers or affect the same neighborhoods.

    Permits tell a more cautious story. Building permits, which signal what’s authorized next, fell 3% overall, with single-family permits down 2.4%. Builders aren’t rushing to expand the future single-family pipeline — they’re pulling back on it, even as multifamily activity surged.

    Completions are the number that actually matters right now. While single-family starts barely moved, single-family completions rose 6.6% in June. That’s the stage of construction most likely to hit the market soon: completed homes become listings, quick-move-in inventory, and direct competition for resale sellers. A slower future pipeline doesn’t mean less competition today — homes started months ago are still landing on the market now.

    New-home inventory is still meaningful. Nationally, builders had about 10.3 months of new single-family homes for sale as of the latest report. That inventory doesn’t sit still — builders move it with mortgage-rate buydowns, closing-cost credits, design upgrades, and other incentives that don’t always show up in the recorded sale price. A resale home priced right on paper can still lose a buyer to a builder incentive package next door.

    None of this lands evenly. New construction competes by price band and location, not by national headline. A luxury resale home isn’t affected by an entry-level townhome community. A new apartment complex may barely register in one neighborhood and reshape rents in another. The national report tells you the direction; only the local numbers tell you what it means for a specific property.

    What this means if you own or manage property locally

    National data is a starting point, not a forecast for Huntington Beach or Orange County specifically. The questions that actually matter are local: How much completed builder inventory is nearby? Are new apartment communities offering concessions that could pull tenants away? Are single-family permits in this submarket rising or slowing? Is a property’s price band facing real new-construction competition, or none at all?

    This is the layer of analysis that gets lost in a headline number — and it’s exactly where property owners and investors benefit from a local partner watching the market rather than a national statistic. At Smart One Property Management, we track what’s actually happening in Huntington Beach and Orange County: local permit activity, nearby builder inventory, rental concessions, and how they affect what a property can rent for or compete against. Whether you own a single rental home or a growing portfolio, that local read is what protects your pricing, your occupancy, and your long-term returns — not the national headline.

    Thinking about how local construction trends might affect your property or investment strategy? Let’s talk. Contact us at (714) 830-1318 today or email us at info@smartonepropertymanagement.com.

  • Seller Concessions Are Quietly Changing Who Can Qualify to Buy

    Seller Concessions Are Quietly Changing Who Can Qualify to Buy

    If you’ve been priced out of the market — or told your numbers “don’t quite work” — it might be time to look again. Sellers are giving up more ground than they have in years, and for buyers on the edge of qualifying, that shift can matter more than a lower listing price ever could.

    What’s Actually Happening in the Data

    • Close to 46% of home sellers offered some form of concession in May — the highest share Redfin has recorded for that month.
    • Roughly 1 in 7 transactions paired a concession with a price cut at the same time, another record high.
    • Sellers are using concessions to help cover closing costs, fund repairs, or buy down a buyer’s mortgage rate.
    • Sellers currently outnumber buyers nationally by an estimated 47%, giving buyers unusual leverage in negotiations.

    Why Concessions Deserve a Second Look

    It’s tempting to treat a concession as a minor sweetener — a small gesture from a seller eager to close. But look closer at what each type actually does to a buyer’s financial picture, and they start to function less like bonuses and more like levers you can pull to change your qualifying numbers:

    • Cutting the price shrinks the loan amount itself, which lowers the monthly payment.
    • Covering closing costs frees up the cash a buyer would otherwise need upfront.
    • Buying down the rate trims the payment even further, independent of the price.

    None of these tools are new. What’s new is how often they’re being combined. A seller willing to drop the price and fund a rate buydown isn’t just being generous — they’re effectively restructuring the deal so more buyers can qualify for it.

    What This Means If You’re on the Fence

    If your last attempt at buying fell apart because the payment didn’t pencil out, this market may treat you differently. A well-negotiated package of concessions can be the piece that moves a deal from “can’t make it work” to “ready to sign.”

    There’s also a longer game worth considering: buy into today’s buyer-friendly conditions, then refinance down the road if rates ease. It’s a pattern seasoned buyers have leaned on for decades — move when sellers are motivated and leverage favors you, and revisit your rate later once the broader market shifts.

    With sellers currently outnumbering buyers by such a wide margin, this is one of the more buyer-favorable stretches we’ve seen in a while. Structuring the offer correctly is what makes the difference.

    Curious what concessions could mean for your specific numbers? Let’s run them together.